Assessing European forest trajectories under climate change with a high resolution forest resource model, EFISCEN-space

T5.22 Modelling forest trajectories under climate stress and changing management


Gert-Jan Nabuurs1,2, Sara Filipek1, Silke Jacobs1, Bas Lerink1, Ajdin Starcevic1, Mariana Hassegawa3, Pieter Johannes Verkerk3, Johanna klapper3, Yasmin Maximo3, Janne Jarvikyla3, Marco Patacca1, 2, nicola Bozzolan1, 2, Louis Konig1, 2, 4, Igor Staritsky1, Geerten Hengeveld1, Mart-Jan Schelhaas1
1 Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen University and Research
2 Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group, Wageningen University and Research
3 European Forest Institute
4 ETH Zurich


European forest are rapidly changing: pressures from climate change and disturbances are increasing, as well as demands for goods and services. Analysing these future trends and where they clash has always been a huge challenge because of limited access to national forest inventory data (NFI). Over the past 10 years, we have been gathering detailed NFI plot data and its individual tree measurements. Now the database comprises > 300,000 NFI plots and > 4 million remeasured trees, thanks to 17 NFIs. For the demand side, we compiled the European Forest Industry Database (EUFID), which encompasses the location and capacity of 6,000 forest industry facilities, categorized into three value-chains: sawmills, pulp and paper, and bioenergy.

We developed the EFISCEN-space model, which now has spatially explicit distribution of timber resources at national forest inventory plot level, including details about the species and diameter composition. We fitted climate dependent tree growth functions, mortality functions and ingrowth functions, as well as litterfall rates and soil carbon models. High resolution (1x1 km) projections of the future carbon balance European forests, soils and harvested wood products will be presented, under trajectories of forest management changes (restoration needs) and changing societal demands with an industry accommodating and following these changes.