Climate change has already increased the occurrence of wildfires, convective storms, and bark beetle outbreaks, all of which are major drivers of tree mortality in forests. However, the future trajectories of these disturbances are unknown, particularly because they can interact with one another. Grünig et al. projected changes in disturbance rates and tree mortality across Europe in the 21st century under three climate change scenarios. They predicted an increase in disturbance-induced mortality especially that due to wildfires. These changes will lead to a decline in old forests and an increase in young forests, particularly in the Mediterranean, with implications for carbon sequestration and biodiversity. By Bianca Lopez / Science
Cite as: Marc Grünig et al. Climate change will increase forest disturbances in Europe throughout the 21st century. Science 391,eadx6329(2026). DOI:10.1126/science.adx6329
Marcus Lindner and Mats Nieberg from EFI contributed to the study.