Looking ahead: how forestry can benefit from exploring horizon scanning

What is the next big thing? What are the emerging trends and signals you have spotted? These were the questions we often encountered when introducing the UEF & EFI collaboration on horizon scanning.

After testing how to detect, collect, and analyse early signs of change, a small team from the University of Eastern Finland (UEF) and EFI, working on exploring horizon scanning, realised,

"Could horizon scanning become part of the forest-based bioeconomy toolbox? And if so, how could we make these methods more systematic?”

Here's what we’ve learnt.

Horizon scanning is a foresight method with a specific angle to futures information

^{Image: Mabel Amber / Pixabay}

Horizon scanning is often a first step in foresight analysis. Furthermore, horizon scanning can be an integral part of an organisation’s practices, feeding into training, recruitment, strategy, and annual planning and management. It helps set the radar for different futures, beyond the current analysis of emerging trends, issues, drivers, and change factors, i.e., what is already known about the past and present.

Also, new data sources and expert fields are needed to provide peripheral vision into the early signs of change in forests and forestry. Such futures information is already used by research organisations and networks, international organisations, governmental agencies, private businesses, and NGOs.

Horizon scanning can aim to:   

Define the priority of emerging issues, such as emerging research topics or trends, future drivers, risks, and opportunities.

• A team led by Cambridge University runs annual horizon scans to identify global biodiversity conservation issues (Sutherland et al. 2026). The method with an expert panel to collect, an online Delphi-type process to assess and a facilitated workshop to review signals has been developed since 2008.
• In addition, it has been applied to the emerging forest sector and forestry issues in the US (Bengston et al. 2024) and the UK (Tew et al. 2024).

Improve preparedness for alternative futures, focusing on foresight system development to widen the radars of operating environment changes and build capacities across organisational levels.

• Several international organisations and governmental agencies run horizon scanning as part of their foresight activities. For example, the United Nations develops its global horizon scanning system across several UN institutions. In Europe, the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) works across several EU institutions.

In our webinar in November 2025, the Finnish Forest Centre explained how they integrate foresight into its strategic management.

Lists of emerging issues are produced through a systematic process. Future preparedness, however, requires a profound approach to futures information as something available and used on a continuous basis. Strong methodological expertise is needed to make horizon scanning systematic and fit for its purpose.

Signals are interpreted by the observer

Choosing a horizon scanning method begins with definitions, including a core question, methods, sources of signals, committed partners, resources and expected use of the results.  

Signals are contextual. Their novelty and significance are interpreted for a purpose. For instance, a trend already spotted in the forest research community can be a weak signal for another audience in another context.

Our experience illustrates the challenge and opportunity with signals:  

“Liquid tree to combat air pollution in Belgrade”, from our in-house sessions at EFI in 2023, showed that technology signals could be explored further on their impacts on forests, forestry and forest research. The questions are different from whether and when a certain technology becomes prevalent.    

“Flip-flops from algae”, by our trainees in 2024, showed the importance of thinking beyond the direct impacts. Signals can be clustered, and this clustering has several implications. Biodegradable materials could help reduce plastic pollution in the oceans, but changes in consumption patterns, attitudes and perceptions towards nature might paradoxically encourage indiscriminate consumption.

“Finnish pulp to solve shortage of ammunition in Ukraine?”, from our session during the Futures Conference in 2024, highlighted the role of diverse perspectives. Weak signals often come with ridiculous, weird connotations; in this case, the group discussed the sustainability of circular bioeconomy solutions. Horizon scanning does not seek to foresee the future, but it can reveal hidden questions about envisioned futures.  

“The European towns that give away free chickens”, in our workshop during the European Bioeconomy Scientific Forum EBSF 2025, showed the power of everyday-life examples to trigger sensemaking of different assumptions about the past, present and future.

Exploring possible futures requires imagination. Here, the signal sparked controversy, from bird flu to human vs. animal welfare, prompting discussion of novel solutions.

The examples above illustrate that a horizon scan can yield very different outcomes depending on how the task is defined. For a fit-for-purpose method, scoping is a crucial step before collecting and assessing signals.

Interaction is the key to information about futures

^{Image: dimarik from Getty Images & Visualine Studio / edited in Canva}

Futures information is a mix of facts and fiction, containing as much evidence about the past and present as ideas and perceptions about the future.

Horizon scanning does not replace analysis of trends, drivers, and change factors. It complements them with a crucial peripheral view; for example, to test continuity of perceived trends or provoke questions for further exploration.  

Indeed, conceptually grounded interactive horizon scanning methods have shown that interaction in signal analysis promotes action orientation and sense of ownership of the scanning results among participants. Our webinar demonstrated this with practical examples.

Whether horizon scanning aims to identify “the next big thing”, build capacity for “future-proof strategy”, or improve the foresight system, one cannot avoid the critical question about futures information.

What we can see through a horizon scan of the future depends on how we define the exercise and who we succeed in engaging.  

To make futures information accessible and to enable it to shape everyday action, key competences need to be harnessed within the forest-based bioeconomy. Even individuals can make a big difference as ambassadors of futures information for forestry.

If you are interested in learning more about the next steps of our collaboration, please contact teppo.hujala @ uef.fi or paivi.pelli @ efi.int.